AI Becomes a Key Tool for Pollsters in This Election Season!

Days after President Joe Biden announced he would not be seeking re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, polling organization Siena College Research Institute sought to learn how “persuadable” voters were feeling about Harris.

In their survey, a 37-year-old Republican explained that they generally favored Trump for his ability to “get [things] done one way or another.”

Pollsters pressed this participant and others across the political spectrum to further explain their stances and examine the nuance behind choosing a candidate.

The researchers observed in real time how voters might sway depending on the issue and asked follow-up questions about their belief systems.

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However, these “persuadable” voters were not interacting with a human pollster but rather an AI chatbot called Engage.

The shift towards artificial intelligence in polling has come as election cycles speed up and participation in traditional phone or door-to-door polls declines. AI tools are now being used to ask and even answer polling questions, providing new ways to gather insights into voter sentiment.

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Polling has played an essential role in U.S. elections for over 200 years, dating back to 1824 when white men began polling each other at election events. Newspapers reported the results, though they did not predict election outcomes.

Over time, polling evolved into a business, with research centers, academic institutions, and news organizations conducting polls during election seasons. Though polling has its limitations, it remains one of the few ways to gauge how Americans might vote.

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Polling serves different purposes for various groups. For campaign workers, polling helps identify the most important issues to voters and informs how candidates discuss these topics.

For news outlets, polls provide context to current events and help drive the 24-hour news cycle. For everyday Americans, polls offer a way to track the progress of the election, either easing or heightening concerns based on their preferred candidate’s performance.

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However, Rachel Cobb, an assistant professor of political science and legal studies at Suffolk University, noted that there has been a noticeable decline in responses to traditional polling methods.

The introduction of AI has been instrumental in addressing these challenges. With the rapid flow of information, polls need to adapt quickly, and AI is helping pollsters keep pace.

Results from AI-driven polls, however, may only reflect a specific moment in time, as public opinion can shift rapidly following major news events. This means pollsters must act fast or train AI to do so.

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Leib Litman, co-CEO and chief research officer of CloudResearch, explained that AI allows them to collect data much faster than before.

Engage, developed about a year ago, has proven particularly useful in this election cycle as campaigns strive to understand how Americans feel at any given moment. However, the goal isn’t to replace human responses with AI but rather to use AI to reach more people efficiently.

Some polling organizations have even begun skipping interviews altogether, relying on “sentiment analysis AI” to scrape publicly available data, such as tweets and voting records, and simulate responses.

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For example, think tank Heartland Forward recently partnered with AI-powered polling group Aaru to assess public perceptions of artificial intelligence.

The algorithm collects geographical and demographic data to predict how specific groups may vote or respond to political issues. Heartland Forward’s executive vice president Angie Cooper noted that the results of the AI-assisted poll closely mirrored those of in-person polling.

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Sentiment analysis AI uses machine learning and large language models to analyze the meaning and tone behind text. The technology not only processes the literal meaning but also seeks out hidden messaging or context, similar to how humans engage in conversation.

Pollsters have been using this technology to gather more nuanced insights into voter sentiment.

AI-assisted polling, however, has its limitations.Sentiment analysis may struggle with ambiguous or evolving information, and algorithms can miss the context of important events.

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For instance, AI models may interpret sympathetic comments made after a political event as indicating support for a particular candidate, even though this may not be the case. AI models are also limited by the data they have been trained on, which may not always reflect current events.

Another concern is that AI polling could leave out certain demographic groups, particularly those who are uncomfortable using AI chatbots or are not active online.

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Cobb emphasized that these groups could be excluded from public opinion polls as AI becomes more integrated into polling methods.

Despite these limitations, experts agree that AI will likely continue to play an important role in polling, supplementing human responses rather than replacing them.

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Bruce Schneier, a security technologist at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, stated that polling has always involved a combination of “fancy math” and human data, and AI is simply the latest tool in this long-standing practice.

AI polling methods offer pollsters greater access and the ability to gauge public reaction more efficiently. Those who have begun using AI in their methodology have found that responses from humans are harder to obtain, making AI an invaluable asset.

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In some cases, AI may provide more honest responses, particularly for sensitive political issues like healthcare and abortion. Litman noted that many women feel more comfortable sharing their true feelings with a chatbot than with a human pollster.

However, there are risks. The Harvard researchers, for example, found that when they asked ChatGPT 3.5 about the U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war, the AI model’s outdated knowledge led to inaccurate responses.

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Sentiment analysis AI also struggles with text that is open to interpretation, and it can misinterpret data when major events are not properly contextualized.

Ultimately, as both political and technology experts agree, AI will continue to influence polling. As the technology becomes more advanced, it may be better equipped to understand human sentiment.

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However, pollsters will need to ensure that human responses remain part of the equation to capture the full scope of public opinion.

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