Key Takeaways
• The U.S. is considering easing AI chip export restrictions to the UAE amid renewed diplomatic and commercial engagements.
• Former President Donald Trump may highlight this during his May 13–16 trip to the Gulf, which coincides with AI export compliance deadlines.
• The UAE pledged up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. investments focused on energy, AI, and semiconductor infrastructure.
• Nvidia stock rose more than 5% after reports emerged about potential policy adjustments benefiting Gulf allies.
The U.S. government is actively evaluating a shift in its AI chip export policy toward the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as high-level officials across the Department of Commerce and the White House explore options to ease the restrictions introduced under the AI diffusion rule.
The UAE, currently included in a list of over 100 countries restricted from accessing advanced AI chips, is pressing for reassessment based on its close strategic and economic ties to the United States.
The deliberations come just weeks before Donald Trump’s scheduled visit to the Gulf region (May 13–16), and coincide with the May 15 compliance deadline for companies to align with the AI export restrictions finalized during President Biden’s last days in office.
• The AI diffusion rule limits exports of advanced AI chips to countries deemed higher-risk.
• UAE officials argue their investment and defense cooperation with the U.S. justify an exemption.
• Government insiders indicate discussions on easing restrictions are gaining traction but remain undecided.
The AI Diffusion Rule: Background and Intent
The AI diffusion rule, implemented in January 2025, is designed to control the global spread of powerful computing capabilities.
It mandates export licensing for certain GPUs and other AI-enabling hardware, particularly chips used in large-scale machine learning applications.
Countries subject to this regulation include the UAE, despite its recognized security partnership with the U.S., including eligibility to purchase F-35 fighter jets.
The UAE’s inclusion has been a point of contention, especially in light of its substantial economic investments in U.S. technology sectors.
UAE Investment and Lobbying Efforts
In March 2025, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser and brother to the country’s president, visited Washington in part to advocate for greater access to Nvidia chips and related technologies. His visit also coincided with a significant announcement:
During Sheikh Tahnoon’s trip, the UAE unveiled plans to spend as much as $1.4 trillion over the next decade on energy, semiconductors, AI infrastructure and manufacturing in the US.
According to a U.S. official familiar with internal discussions, this pledge catalyzed more serious consideration of policy adjustments toward the UAE.
In a parallel development, Silver Lake, a tech-focused investment firm with backing from the UAE’s Mubadala Investment Company, acquired a majority stake in Intel’s Altera unit, further intertwining Emirati capital with American semiconductor production.
Strategic Diplomacy: Trump’s Scheduled Visit
Former President Trump’s upcoming visit to the UAE holds both symbolic and strategic significance. Scheduled for May 13–16, it coincides directly with the AI diffusion rule’s effective compliance date.
While no formal announcement has been confirmed, insiders suggest that the trip may serve as a platform for Trump to reinforce the UAE’s role as a tech and defense partner.
One source briefed on his remarks indicated:
The president recently questioned why the US can’t sell chips to a nation approved to buy F-35 fighter jets.
His comments reportedly followed his meeting with Sheikh Tahnoon, highlighting the interconnected nature of national security, trade, and AI strategy.
Market Impact and Commercial Ramifications
Following reports of the possible regulatory shift, Nvidia shares surged over 5%, reflecting market optimism that new sales avenues could soon open.
Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip space globally, would stand to gain significantly from reauthorization of sales to a wealthy, tech-forward partner like the UAE.
• Nvidia stock rose sharply after the news broke of potential rule revisions.
• The UAE is actively expanding its AI capabilities and views chip access as critical.
• A U.S. policy shift could set a precedent for other non-adversarial nations under similar restrictions.
While industry and diplomatic actors push for more flexible trade arrangements, national security experts remain cautious. Some warn that relaxing rules selectively could open indirect pathways for sensitive technologies to reach unintended actors or regions.
Dr. Emily Chen, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic Technologies, emphasized:
The UAE is a reliable U.S. partner, but the AI diffusion rule was meant to apply consistently. Selective exemptions could create loopholes that adversaries might exploit indirectly.
In contrast, others see the UAE’s track record and investment in U.S. security infrastructure as justification for trust. Raj Patel, a former U.S. trade policy advisor, stated:
We already treat the UAE as a strategic defense partner. Blocking chip access while enabling military cooperation sends mixed signals and undermines long-term trust.
No Final Decision, But Momentum Builds
At present, the Commerce Department and White House have issued no official comment. Nvidia and the UAE embassy have also declined to speak on the matter.
However, the convergence of diplomatic outreach, strategic investment, and political timing is rapidly shifting the conversation.
While any announcement during Trump’s visit may lack granular policy detail, the symbolic significance could be substantial and signal future regulatory revisions.
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